Election Day Note

I am more than happy to eat my own words when it's personal cynicism or inability to break old ways of thinking that spurred my comments in the first place.

On this very blog I have said some things, which I am thrilled to have been wrong about:

-The youth will never turn out in significant numbers on election day.
-The democrats need a few racists around in order to win.
-A democratic presidential nominee will not win Virginia.

America has been changing and the attitudes in America have been changing, but the face of the electorate has not kept pace. Today, however, I believe that we are going to show the world what America really looks like. And we are going to get a president that is representative of that reality.

Happy to be wrong.

They Stole My Obama Support Magnet...

... at the NASCAR race. It's sad but I did think about it in the morning - "Was my vehicle at risk for being vandalized? Should I hide my support in order to avoid something potentially annoying?" In the end I decided that I would let NASCAR fans show me their true colors. It occurred to me that there might be some pro-Obama union members in the crowd. There were also always a surprising number of blacks and gays at NASCAR races, for which I had previously volunteered. So I decided to leave my magnet - come what may.

I am pleased to report that my vehicle wasn't harmed in any way. There is also a slight chance that it was another Obama supporter walking by my vehicle who wanted a support magnet so badly they were willing to steal it. Unlikely, but possible.

On a related note, the McCain campaign was at the race in force passing out swag. Many people opted to slap the "Race Fans for McCain" stickers on their shirts.

Specificity

Senator Obama just got specific. Now what?

On Hillary's Big Night at DNC

Schweitzer! Scheitzer Schweitzer!

Obama Responds to Tire Guage Silliness

Pointless Drill

The will to drill
via Paul Krugman

For a few barrels more According to the Energy Information Administration, removing restrictions on offshore drilling would, at peak — about 20 years from now — add about 0.2% to world production, with an “insignificant” effect on the price of oil.

So much for offshore drilling. I also heard this put in terms of months once. Even if we used all of the oil, refined it here and used it here, it would give the U.S. only something like six more months of oil dependency. Is it really worth that? If you've got to stop doing something, you've got to stop doing it. And the sooner the better.

Which Country First?

Election Central Morning Roundup
via TPM Election Central

McCain Addressing Urban League, Then A "Country First" Event

John McCain will also be in Florida today, where he'll be addressing the annual convention of the National Urban League -- a minority audience that is sure to have the campaign's current racial overtones on their minds. Then later this evening he'll be attending a new kind of campaign event: A "Country First Concert" with country singer John Rich -- part of the "Country First" slogan designed to present him as the truly patriotic candidate.

What is "country first" about McCain? The fact that he served in the military? Maybe I should ask which country he is putting first. It seems like he is more "Iraq first" than "America first." This goes back to that whole Minnesota bridge collapse. Let's truly put our country first by electing someone that will worry about domestic problems, fix our infrastructure and get our military back to the proper level of readiness.

PS: I can convert these Google Reader items pretty quickly. I apologize, though, to those that actually subscribe to and read my Google Reader shared items. These will be repeats.

Windfall

Obama's 'emergency' economic plan
via Politico.com: Politics '08

Would give families a $1,000 stimulus check, funded in part by “windfall profits from Big Oil."

Wow. Expect lots of debate on "windfall taxes." Also, it's also funny that on a day when Obama said he'd give every family $1,000 McCain seems to think he can find resonance with voters by saying "Obama wants to raise your taxes." People will be scratching their heads thinking, "Ummm.. But Obama just said that he was giving me $1,000." But McCain's higher-taxes charge isn't really aimed at convincing normal people that Obama is bad. His target group is the $250,000+ salary crowd. Hope that works out for him.

PS: This is a bit of a test post. I am trying to see how quickly and easily a Google Reader item shared with a note can be converted to a Blogger post.

John Can't Believe It!

I just realized that John McCain doesn't pull off incredulity very well.

That's one of the devices that made his infamous green backdrop speech so weird the night Obama clinched the nomination. I didn't realize it until today when I saw his speech on energy and "strategic independence."

I bet if he was actually outraged about something he could show some emotion have a greater impact.

Mudcat

David "Mudcat" Saunders (most recently from the Edwards campaign) is quite a character. He thinks that Obama's Appalachian problem may not be as bad as it seems. It's a bit lengthy, but I highly reccomend this Weekly Standard article about him.

Combine this story with the news today from Obama's field director that they will pursue a campaign strategy that goes after voters in 14 of Bush's red states and...

This is going to get interesting!

R.I.P. Carlin

I always liked this take on The Ten Commandments:

Deuce and Khalid

If you have some spare time, you should read this NYT article about the interrogation of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed. It's a sober look at how we handled dangerous terrorists once they were captured.

What Hillary Wants

Today's talk of the town seems to be about, "What Hillary Wants." I'll tell you what I think she should ask for - that Obama adopt her healthcare plan. That's it. She has the better plan that would cover more people. Additionally, it doesn't allow any gaming of the system. Obama should admit that she was right on this point, that she is the expert on healthcare reform and that he is going to put her proposal forward and defer to her on all healthcare matters. That, I think, is the respect that she deserves.

In the interest of getting a Democrat into the White House, I also hope that Clinton passes along all of her plans and positions to Obama's campaign for consideration. I supported Hillary because I liked the resolution and granularity that she conveyed on every issue. Obama should have that reserve of knowledge in his presidential bid.

I am not saying that he should forsake his inspirational speaking style for recitations of five-point plans. But when he is pushed for specifics, I want that same level of competence to be there.

I'm Calling It

If things go the way I think they are going to go - Obama's our man.

I am behind him 100%. He has my full support. I hope that all the long-time Obama supporters out there would have been as eager to back Hillary had things gone the other way.

Looking forward to an interesting campaign season.

November Math

Hillary's math for winning the primary is, admittedly, not looking good. But I think the assertions she is making about November are probably accurate. She looks more electable than Barack to me because of the voters she'll bring to the table in a general election.

I should preface my post by noting there is something really icky about what I am saying. It's uncomfortable for me that I even have this opinion and it's even more uncomfortable for me to write about it here. I don't think this is because what I am saying is wrong - it's because I am ashamed to admit that I am capable of thinking this way. And I am ashamed that I believe that this is how our country still works. And I should also add: there is a part of me that hopes I am wrong. So, back to my point...

Barack is doing extraordinarily well with black voters, young folks and the highly-educated. I hate to take the black vote for granted, but I find it hard to believe that many blacks would defect to McCain if Clinton were to get the Democratic nomination. Some would be disenchanted, for sure, but with high turnout among black voters in the primaries, I think that between the newly energized electorate and those upset that Obama didn't win, it'd be a wash. Voting among this block would be no larger or smaller than in 2004 or 2000.

I think that the same pretty much applies to the well-educated. After following the events of the last 7+ years, I'd be surprised if many of them thought it'd be a good idea to elect McCain. Some will sit out the election, but for the most part this is a politically-active bunch that makes a point of going to the polls.

The youth vote always disappoints. Always. Every four years I roll my eyes as the media focuses on first-time voters. Even when you get a "high" participation rate of 51% among voters age 18-29, they only make up about 1 in 10 votes cast. Young people end up having about half the impact of the increasingly ineffectual "values voters."

And, no, I don't think Obama can win Virginia. Perhaps my view is tainted from the 2004 election, when I lived in Alexandria. Kerry stickers were abundant and none of my neighbors was going to vote Bush in for a second term. But on election night, when I saw the map of Virginia by precinct, I thought, "Oh yeah! What was I thinking? Virginia is a sprawling, white, conservative, rural state. Why did I even think the DC suburbs could have balanced out all those other voters?" Virginia does have a Democratic Governor and I couldn't be prouder of Jim Webb's work in the Senate. So I hope I am wrong about this state, but I doubt it.

Hillary brings all the same voters in November plus the left-leaning elderly, women of all ages, Hispanics and blue-collar whites. I do see the obvious holes in my assertion here. Clearly, some of the elderly are black and some of the women and Hispanics are well-educated, etc. Theses circles overlap, I know... the pigeon-holing of demographic analysis is an ugly, dirty and imprecise business. I'm not even sure why I am engaging in it other than to say - Makes sense to me! And I wish it didn't.

But then there is a part of me that says: "So wait a minute, Billy! Are you saying we need the bigot-vote to win? We need the votes of those people that, for whatever reason, wouldn't vote for Barack under any circumstance?" Uh... Um... Wow! This is uncomfortable. Maybe? I mean, those people are still alive and they vote. I hope they all die off soon and we end up with a more tolerant and enlightened electorate. But in the meantime, they are here. And I can't handle another 4 or 8 years of this crap!

To end on a more positive note, there are things that make me optimistic about Obama's chances as well. He's touting change and people want change. He's handsome and young and people like handsome and young. He's inspiring and people like to be inspired. He's a Democrat and voters overwhelmingly prefer a generic Democrat to a generic Republican right now. If the election ends up being about the economy, he should win. And if America is a much better place than I think it is, then he should win.

I guess I didn't talk about any of their respective policies or stances on the issues, did I? That's probably a result of the spin and media coverage I have been exposed to lately. Ugh. Is this over yet?

Dead Candidates?

With all the talk about John McCain's age and health, I can't help but morbidly wonder:

Have we ever had a presidential candidate die while campaigning?

Google didn't seem to know. I guess I'd need a presidential historian.

A Call for Democratic Unity

For a few weeks I have been listening to Republicans call C-SPAN, Rush and Hannity and say that if John McCain becomes the Republican nominee, they will sit out the election or back Barack Obama.

Then Ann Coulter (stupid cunt) said that she'd campaign for and vote for Hillary Clinton if John McCain won the GOP nomination.

I was hoping we wouldn't see this kind of stupidity on the Democratic side, but it has already begun. A woman called C-SPAN's Washington Journal yesterday. She was a former Bill Clinton campaign staffer, but now supports Barack after "getting too close to the Clintons and seing how mean-spirited Hillary is." She said that if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination over Obama, she will either vote for John McCain or leave the country. I suspect we'll hear more positions like this until the nominee is decided.

Also, I found Michelle Obama's statement that she'd "have to think about" backing Hillary totally unacceptable.

I'm worried. Please don't let this get ugly on our side! As I write this, Mitt Romney is dropping out of the race. The Republican front is about to get a little more unified as we are apparently splintering.

Obama: Next in a Long Line of White Males?

A Republican friend of mine gave me a weird rationale for not liking Barack Obama. She didn't like the fact that, "He's running as a black man, but he's still half-white! He's just as much white as he is black, so why is he playing up just one side of his roots?" I didn't know how to respond to this and I still don't. I didn't feel like trying to examine her motivations. Maybe she feels like she is being ignored as a white female.

And then the following absurdity kept entering my mind: He's running as a male but has both X and Y chromosones! Hillary is a true XX female.

Then my mind exploded.

Hllary's National Town Hall

So I am watching Hillary Clinton's National Town Hall event on the Hallmark Channel. If she pulls this off and wins - no big deal. If she fails to secure the nomination, however, this event is going to look really narcissistic in retrospect.

So there is one thing that is creeping me out about it so far. The audio feed is actually ahead of the video signal! You hear what she is saying before her lips even move. This is not going to help her image (often used against her) of being polished and well-rehearsed.

Iowa Caucuses - Pt. III

Okay, so my "fizzlers" turned out to be "dazzlers." I guess I should have believed the hype.

Hillary Clinton is my preferred candidate because I feel that she is extremely competent and would be a strong, progressive leader. That being said, I have some reservations about her candidacy. I think that many people share these concerns and this is evident in the fact that the second choices of third-tier candidates' supporters were Obama and Edwards. They had already discounted Hillary early on for whatever reason and didn't even make her their back-up candidate.

I will admit this: If Hillary wins the Democratic primaries I am not sure what will happen in the general election. She is vulnerable. However, if Obama emerges as the Democratic nominee I feel his presidency is almost assured.

One candidate on the Republican side scares me a bit - John McCain. But, according to all indicators, the Republicans will make sure he never makes it out of the primaries alive on account of his immigration stance.

Iowa Caucases - Pt. II

I am second guessing my assessment now. After listening to even more coverage, it's looking like Obama will not fizzle. The reason? I think a lot of the Biden and Richardson supporters will move to Obama after seeing that their picks don't have 15%.

Don't get me wrong - I like Obama well enough. It's just that I have been reading a lot of Paul Krugman lately and Obama has been messing up the discussion on Social Security and healthcare.

Not to mention, he is a little too "Let's all hold hands and get along." I am more and more of the mind that bi-partisanship isn't the answer to what ails this country. We need some strong, progressive leadership. Have I become a fanatic again?

Iowa Caucases

I don't know what is going to happen on Thursday in Iowa, but these are my feelings after being saturated by news coverage...

Should do better than expected:
- McCain
- Edwards

Primed to fizzle:
- Huckabee
- Obama

Will finish strong, but not strong enough to project inevitability:
- Romney
- Cinton

Helping Hand for Painful ARMs

Our president proves once again that he is the official spokesman for the corporations, not the people. Why is he the one announcing a private sector, programmatic solution to the current mortgage crisis? I gather that the Treasury Department hosted or encouraged the discussions that lead to this agreement. That's the executive branch connection, I suppose.

So here is how the majority of Americans view what happened today: George Bush cares about the many people who are having a hard time paying their mortgages. He announced his plan today that will help some freeze their adjustable interest rates or refinance. This is going to help people stay in their homes. Awww... He's so nice!

Here is what those of us who have been paying attention see: Hillary announced her proposal of how to deal with this crisis legislatively. Public opinion seems to suggest that voters would support the government stepping in and helping out. There would likely be bipartisan support in Congress of any law that would assist these homeowners. The mayors of major cities met to talk about how increased foreclosures would affect their revenues. Basically, the writing has been on the wall for some time: The government was ready and willing to help.

Well, as we have already seen, conservatives want to dismantle any and all wildly popular social programs. The last thing they want is for the government to use its strength and/or the taxpayers' dollars to do something that the people would like. So the administration warns the lending industry that it better police itself before the crazy, liberal congress does something about it. Also, how bad would it look for the president to "have to" veto a bill that would provide this kind of aid? The lenders and mortgage services have undoubtedly been working on this preemptively for months. Inventing their own program protects them from government regulation and shields the president from more embarrassment.

But we all know how well voluntary compliance and self-policing works. Just take a look at our recent approach to environmental policy. This mortgage help, I'm sure, will be no more successful. It looks like lenders are set to collect some handsome servicing fees as people refinance their homes. Also, judging by the qualifications for aid, not many people will be helped in the end. The president giving out the wrong telephone number for the hotline is yet another example of how much they truly want to help.

CNN/YouTube Republican Debate Roundup

QUESTIONS: First, the obvious - most of the questions were softballs. The candidates didn't have to answer questions on gay marriage or global warming, drug legalization, sex education or stem-cell research. I wanted the GOP candidates to face gay/lesbian couples in love asking why their feelings and commitment mattered less. I was hoping the sick and dying would push these guys on medical research and patients' rights. Oh well. As has already been reported, Grover Norquist was a hilarious example of what was wrong with CNN's editorial decisions.


IMMIGRATION: I enjoyed this part of the debate because it showed that the Republicans cannnot reduce this issue to a slogan. Fear, racism and paranoia can only go so far. The candidates had to talk about small business owners that employ foreign workers. Particularly funny was what to do with the children of undocumented immigrants that go into school and kick the American kids' asses academically: Do they deserve scholarships? Huckabee said yes. Romney said no, but missed the point. The Republicans keep bringing up the immigration issue, but they are more fractured on it than the Democrats. The Democrats all just generally agree that our policies could maybe be a little better.

GUNS: Duncan Hunter's response to a question on the Second Amendment blew my mind: "From Bunker Hill to New Orleans to the rooftops of Fallujah, the right to keep and bear arms and use them effectively is an important part of America's security." New Orleans?!? Bunker Hill and Fallujah took place during wars where soldiers were carrying the weapons. So I immediately thought, "What the hell happened in New Orleans?" Then I remembered the only thing I can suppose Duncan was referring to - people were looting. It reminds me of the NRA comic book picture below. In the Republican mind, the blacks will go bat-shit crazy and the only thing that will stand between the mayhem and your white, virgin daughter is your gun. LOLZ!
IRAQ: Will McCain PLEASE stop speaking for all military people?!?! He and Rep. Cornyn (TX) are the worst. Yes, I realize that Cornyn isn't a presidential candidate. It just infuriates me when I hear them say some version of "our soldiers want to win! ... our soldiers are motivated! ... our troops tell me: just give us the chance for victory!" Guess what? We are not so monolithic. But the Republicans don't want to understand that. One more thing: I was surprised by how much applause Ron Paul garnered when he called for bringing our troops home. That's a good sign.

GAYS IN THE MILITARY: Speaking of the military, Duncan Hunter's logic on gays serving openly in the military was dumbfounding. To summarize, he said that the majority of military members are conservatives and conservatives don't approve of gays, therefore, they shouldn't have to serve with them. Whaa?? What if the majority of servicemembers were racist, sexist or christian? Could we have a white, all-male, christian army? Oh please, please, please?

THE BLACK VOTE: More charicature of blacks from the Republican candidates. The individual submitting his question to YouTube asked why more blacks don't vote for Republicans, considering they agree on "gay marriage, taxes, the death penalty, immigration, faith-based initiatives, school vouchers, school prayer." Giuliani tried to say that more blacks should vote for Republicans because the Republican party is the party of education (har) and the blacks need educatin'. Geez. Okay, that's not exactly what he said, but that's what it sounded like. Then we get Huckabee, who starts talking about AIDS and welfare. It's like their brains go, "Okay... a black guy is asking me a question. What horribly stereotypical things can I think of that relate to black people?" Hrm. Maybe all these candidates are more Reaganesque than we give them credit for.

Inhaling Demons

Sorry for the lull in postings, I have been busy at work.

I turned on the 700 Club today for some laughs and Pat Robertson happened to be answering viewer mail. A woman wrote to him concerned about a new career opportunity. She could land a job teaching martial arts to children and earn thousands of dollars, but wasn't sure if it was something that christ would want her to do. Pat's answer: Depends.

If you teach martial arts to kids like Chuck Norris does, then that is awesome! Chuck takes "ghetto kids" and gives them a better life. But Robertson warned the woman against getting involved in any martial art that involved, "inhaling demons before the martial arts. Because that's what some of them do. They inhale demons before hand to give them power."

Yikes!

By the way, in Norris' book The Secret Power Within, he has a chapter called "My Way of Meditating." No word on whether he inhales demons or just prays to angels.